Obama and the Racist Voter - Another Bradley Effect?

Will Racist Voters Cost Obama the Presidency?

A few days ago I was asked to attend a debate watch for the final faceoff between Barak Obama and John McCain. More specifically, I was being asked to serve as a moderator for the discussion that was to take place after the debate. In my effort to generate questions I could ask to spur discussion, I had to think about some of the possible issues the candidates might raise. One of the issues that many political pundits are wondering about is the Obama connection to Ayers, a topic I have already addressed in another post. Another issue, and one that surprised me in terms of how much coverage it was receiving, was the race factor. Could Obama lose the election because of racist voters? At first glance the answer would seem to be no; Obama's lead in most polls has him far enough ahead of McCain that the racist vote should not cost him the election. However, the numbers game is much more complicated.

According to political scientists, whenever a black candidate runs against a white candidate in state and local elections, there is always the possibility of having a "Bradley effect." Named after the former mayor of Los Angeles who ran for Governor and lost despite his lead in the polls, this effect posits that many white voters will express support for a black candidate when asked by a pollster only to vote against that person on election day. After losing, it seemed as though the polls overstated the among of support Bradley really had among white voters.

Of course, I should also note that the race factor also helps Obama with some voters. Although I would not call this a "reverse Bradley effect," it is certainly there. How this will play out on election day makes me very nervous. There is still a lot of time left in the election and anything can happen to make this a closer race, a race where the Bradley effect might matter.

Richard Besel is an Assistant Professor at California Polytechnic State University. You can read his blog at http://richardbesel.blogspot.com

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